Seahawks Playoff Odds

by Joe on December 12, 2012

One thing I love about football and sports in general is the applied mathematics involved. Percentages, probabilities, averages, and all that come into play. I am by no means a math genius but I do like crunching numbers and seeing how they play out.

That is one reason I like looking at sites like Football Outsiders. They just updated their 2012 DVOA Playoff Odds Report. They run a season 50,000 times based on current weighted DVOA ratings and they spit out some results.

Right now the Seahawks are pretty much a lock to make the playoffs with a 93% chance. A crazy series of events would have to take place for Seattle to miss out on the playoffs this year. But if you start looking for bigger things from Seattle that is where it gets interesting.

Seattle has a 30.5% chance of winning the division right now. The most realistic way for this to happen of course is Seattle beats Buffalo and New England beats SF this weekend. Then Seattle bests SF at home on the 23rd and beats the Rams on the 30th. NE is favored this weekend and Seattle should be favored against Buffalo and St. Louis so it will pretty much come down to the game on the 23rd.

The Seahawks also have a 1.8% chance at the #1 seed. In order for this to happen we need to win out, Atlanta needs to lose their next 3, and GB needs to lose one more.  ATL faces Detroit, NY Giants, and TB. Green Bay has Chicago, Tennessee, and Minnesota. Very improbable but Atlanta is the worst 11-2 team I have ever seen and none of the teams they are playing are pushovers. So it could happen.

But will we be happy with a #1 seed? No way!!! I want a Lombardi trophy. And looking at playoff scenarios Football Outsiders has Seattle as the 4th most likely team to win the Super Bowl! New England is at 24%, Denver is at 14.6%, SF is at 13.3%, and Seattle is at 11.9%. I will take those odds all day.

And because it is 12-12-12 here is a list of 12 stadiums where the #12 is retired. Of course Seattle is on the list and the Seahawks will need the 12th Man in full effect when the Niners and Rams come to down.

On to the Super Bowl!!!

And just for fun there is this video. Never have more true words been spoken:

Comments on this entry are closed.

Previous post:

Next post: